Assad’s 3 Critical Mistakes That All Dictators Should Avoid
Assad’s downfall serves as a cautionary tale, and all smart dictators will avoid making the three critical mistakes that Assad made.
_01.jpg){kind=link}
The previous post explored the key elements that made Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad such a successful dictator and that all aspiring dictators should try to emulate. Yet, it would be wrong to suggest that Assad made no serious mistakes. In fact, had he not made three critical mistakes he could have lasted even longer, remaining the pre-eminent dictator of the Middle East and inspiring new generations of dictators worldwide.
1. Gassing Your People with Chemical Weapons
Using chemical weapons to gas your own people sounds like a great idea in theory. It seems like a perfect tool of state terrorism. Chemical weapons strike terror not only in the hearts of nasty people — i.e. self-entitled political opposition who demand less political repression — but they should more broadly also terrorize civilian population into complete submission.
Yet, despite sounding great in theory, using chemical weapons against your own people has serious downsides.
For one, it usually erodes your support among your domestic or regional partners. More importantly, it usually leads to international sanctions which can cripple your economy. With a crippled economy you’ll have difficult time financing various groups and power structures whose support you need to stay in power.
In Assad’s case, for example, US sanctions and international sanctions crippled the Syrian economy to the point that many soldiers in Assad’s army lacked even basic nutrition. And it stands to reason that the army that is lacking even basic nourishment will not kill innocent civilians and political opposition with the same zeal as the well-fed army.
Another downside to using chemical weapons is that it will limit your personal residence options if being a dictator doesn’t work out for you. After his regime collapsed about six weeks ago, Assad fled to Russia, where he was given political asylum “out of humanitarian considerations.” (In Russia, of course, the most humanitarian thing imaginable is granting asylum to deposed dictators.)
And yet, despite the wonderful feeling of living in Moscow — it’s a place, after all, where everyone dreams of spending a lovely winter — Assad himself would have preferred to stay in the Emirates. But the Emiratis refused to grant him refuge because they feared the international backlash that would result from harboring someone who gassed his own people with chemical weapons.
Overall, however tempting chemical weapons may seem to you, it is usually best to abstain from using them. Instead of chemical weapons, it’s much better to rely on old-fashioned methods of mass murder that are in practice acceptable to all civilized nations, such as heavy indiscriminate bombings.
2. Relying Too Much on a Limited Coalition of Dictatorships
This is another serious mistake that many dictators make when they plunge their country into turmoil. They often rely too heavily on a small group of friendly, supportive outside dictatorships. This leaves them vulnerable when their few dictator friends are down on their luck.
Assad, for example, relied heavily on Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. But Russia, for one, had just plain bad luck getting stuck robbing territory from one of its neighbors when it was all supposed to be an easy territorial robbery. And then Iran and Hezbollah were also beaten down by the Israeli attacks.
So, instead of relying on a handful of friendly dictatorships and supportive terror groups, it is much better to diversify your alliances and build relationships with a broader range of friendly dictatorships and terror groups.
3. Not Rewarding Good People Who Support Your Dictatorship
When you become a highly successful dictator who manages to stay in power for much longer than most of your fellow dictator colleagues, there is a risk you’ll become overconfident and self-centered. This may lead you to neglect the value of your supporters who help you remain a pre-eminent dictator.
Assad’s downfall was in part due to this mistake.
When the rebel forces launched their offensive in December, most of Assad’s supporters, such as middle- and upper-class Sunnis, Alawites, Armenians, Christians, and other minorities, decided they no longer wanted to shed any more blood for Assad. This was because they felt they had sacrificed a lot and gained almost nothing in return for previously helping to defeat most of Assad’s enemies. In fact, they felt that the Assad regime not only didn’t reward them but it became even more rapacious and violent.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with being rapacious and violent — that’s one of the best things about being a dictator. However, it should not come at the expense of maintaining power.
Generally, smart dictators will reward their core supporters with a share of the spoils. Not a lot, but just enough to keep their supporters sufficiently motivated to shed blood and kill anyone who stands in their dictator’s way.
All of this should serve as a cautionary tale for all aspiring dictators who can learn a valuable lesson from Assad’s mistakes. After all, Assad’s own fate might have been very different if he had:
1. Avoided unnecessarily using chemical weapons to gas his own people, a move that led to international sanctions and the crippling of his economy, resulting in his inability to buy internal support.
2. Worked as hard on making new dictator friends as he worked hard on torturing and murdering his domestic political enemies.
3. Better rewarded and kept motivated all the good people who helped him terrorize his own civilian population and brutally murder the political opposition.